Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Independiente Medellin and 0.86 for Once Caldas, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Independiente Medellin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Independiente Medellin win

46.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.29 – 0.86

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Independiente Medellin home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Once Caldas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Independiente Medellin win47%

Draw29%

Once Caldas win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–015.0%
1–112.9%
0–011.6%
0–110.0%
2–09.7%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.6%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 58.2% vs market 46.7%, edge +11.5 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	2.00	46.7%	58.2%	1.72	+11.5
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.25	74.7%	75.1%	1.33	+0.4
Match result	Away	3.70	24.7%	24.9%	4.02	+0.2
Match result	Draw	3.20	28.5%	28.6%	3.50	+0.1
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.75	53.4%	53.5%	1.87	+0.1
Match result	Home	1.95	46.8%	46.5%	2.15	-0.3
Double chance	Home/Away	1.30	71.9%	71.4%	1.40	-0.5
Both teams to score	Yes	1.75	53.3%	41.8%	2.39	-11.5

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Independiente Medellin

2026-10-15T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Nacional · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-12T01:15:00.000Z · A vs America de Cali · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-30T01:05:00.000Z · H vs Millonarios · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T01:20:00.000Z · A vs Junior · 0-2 (L)

Once Caldas

2026-09-26T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Bucaramanga · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Pasto · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-16T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Tolima · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T23:10:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Cali · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Valledupar · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-03T01:30:00.000Z · Independiente Medellin 1-1 Once Caldas (Primera A)
2025-10-13T22:15:00.000Z · Independiente Medellin 5-1 Once Caldas (Primera A)
2025-04-20T01:20:00.000Z · Independiente Medellin 2-0 Once Caldas (Primera A)
2024-09-28T21:10:00.000Z · Independiente Medellin 2-0 Once Caldas (Primera A)
2024-03-17T01:30:00.000Z · Independiente Medellin 1-2 Once Caldas (Primera A)
2023-10-01T21:00:00.000Z · Independiente Medellin 2-2 Once Caldas (Primera A)
2023-05-11T23:00:00.000Z · Independiente Medellin 2-2 Once Caldas (Primera A)
2022-07-24T21:50:00.000Z · Independiente Medellin 1-1 Once Caldas (Primera A)
2022-02-05T01:00:00.000Z · Independiente Medellin 1-2 Once Caldas (Primera A)
2021-09-18T01:00:00.000Z · Independiente Medellin 3-1 Once Caldas (Primera A)

Primera A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	20	40
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	3	6	10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	4	27
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	6	23
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	-17	10
1	America de Cali	13	8	3	2	16	27
2	Deportivo Cali	13	7	4	2	11	25
3	Bucaramanga	12	6	6	0	10	24
4	Atletico Nacional	11	7	2	2	11	23
5	Independiente Medellin	13	7	2	4	4	23
6	Santa Fe	12	6	4	2	7	22
7	Millonarios	14	5	7	2	7	22
8	Deportes Tolima	14	5	5	4	1	20
9	Cucuta	13	5	3	5	-3	18
10	Once Caldas	13	4	4	5	0	16
11	Águilas Doradas	13	3	7	3	-1	16
12	Llaneros	13	4	2	7	-2	14
13	Internacional de Bogota	14	2	8	4	-4	14
14	Chico	12	3	3	6	-9	12
15	Alianza Valledupar	13	3	3	7	-12	12
16	Junior	13	2	5	6	-4	11
17	Fortaleza FC	13	1	8	4	-5	11
18	Jaguares	12	2	4	6	-8	10
19	Deportivo Pereira	13	1	7	5	-10	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	12	2	3	7	-9	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Independiente Medellin win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.