Independiente Medellín W vs Once Caldas W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Independiente Medellín W and 0.63 for Once Caldas W, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Independiente Medellín W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Independiente Medellín W win

64.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 0.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Once Caldas W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente Medellín W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 23% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Independiente Medellín W and 0.63 for Once Caldas W, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 39%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Match result (1X2)

Independiente Medellín W win65%

Draw23%

Once Caldas W win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

35%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–016.2%
2–014.2%
1–110.2%
0–09.2%
2–18.9%

Recent form

Independiente Medellín W

Once Caldas W

2026-08-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Bucaramanga W · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional Palmira W · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Pasto W · 1-4 (L)
2026-05-28T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Santander W · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-22T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Llaneros W · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Femenina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Cali W	26	19	4	3	35	61
2	Millonarios W	24	13	9	2	27	48
3	Atlético Nacional W	24	16	0	8	22	48
4	América de Cali W	22	14	3	5	24	45
5	Santa Fe W	26	11	8	7	12	41
6	La Equidad W	22	10	4	8	7	34
7	Internacional Palmira W	22	9	6	7	-7	33
8	Orsomarso W	22	5	8	9	-5	23
9	Independiente Medellín W	16	6	1	9	-1	19
10	Fortaleza W	16	4	5	7	-9	17
11	Atlético Bucaramanga W	16	5	2	9	-19	17
12	Llaneros W	16	3	4	9	-22	13
13	Junior W	16	2	6	8	-12	12
14	Real Santander W	16	1	7	8	-18	10
15	Once Caldas W	16	1	5	10	-18	8
16	Deportivo Pasto W	16	1	4	11	-16	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Independiente Medellín W win, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.