· Referee M. Balboa · Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Independiente Petrolero vs Blooming Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.95 expected goals for Independiente Petrolero and 1.35 for Blooming, a combined total of 4.30. That distribution gives Independiente Petrolero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Independiente Petrolero win
69.8% probability
Expected goals
2.95 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independiente Petrolero home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Blooming away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente Petrolero to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 15% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.95 goals for Independiente Petrolero and 1.35 for Blooming, a combined 4.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–05.9%
- 3–05.8%
- 4–15.8%
Recent form
Independiente Petrolero
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Tomayapo · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T23:15:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T21:15:00.000Z · A vs Universitario de Vinto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
Blooming
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Petrolero · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T21:15:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Oriente Petrolero · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitario de Vinto · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa de la División Profesional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolívar | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Aurora | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Nacional Potosí | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 14 |
| 4 | The Strongest | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Independiente Petrolero | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Real Potosí | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Oriente Petrolero | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Real Tomayapo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Always Ready | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 10 |
| 11 | Guabirá | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Universitario de Vinto | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | ABB | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Real Oruro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 | Blooming | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Independiente Petrolero win, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.