Independiente Petrolero vs Bolívar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Independiente Petrolero and 1.98 for Bolívar, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Bolívar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bolívar win

52.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Independiente Petrolero home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bolívar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bolívar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 26% / 22% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Independiente Petrolero and 1.98 for Bolívar, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Independiente Petrolero win26%

Draw22%

Bolívar win52%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–19.6%
1–29.5%
0–17.1%
0–27.0%
2–16.5%

Recent form

Independiente Petrolero

2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Tomayapo · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-18T23:15:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T21:15:00.000Z · A vs Universitario de Vinto · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)

Bolívar

2026-10-04T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Independiente Petrolero · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-01T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-27T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Blooming · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T21:15:00.000Z · A vs The Strongest · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Always Ready	21	14	6	1	36	48
2	Bolívar	21	15	3	3	33	48
3	The Strongest	21	12	6	3	16	42
4	Real Potosí	21	9	8	4	14	35
5	Oriente Petrolero	21	10	3	8	10	33
6	Aurora	21	7	10	4	4	31
7	Guabirá	21	8	5	8	-10	29
8	Nacional Potosí	21	8	4	9	2	28
9	Blooming	21	6	9	6	7	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	21	7	4	10	-10	25
11	Real Oruro	21	7	3	11	-16	24
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	6	3	12	-19	21
13	ABB	21	6	2	13	-15	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	21	5	3	13	-15	18
15	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	21	3	8	10	-13	17
16	Real Tomayapo	21	4	5	12	-24	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bolívar win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.