· Referee L. Villarroel · Analysis updated 16:19 UTC
Independiente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Independiente Petrolero and 1.13 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ, a combined total of 3.76. That distribution gives Independiente Petrolero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Independiente Petrolero win
69.3% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independiente Petrolero home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente Petrolero to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 17% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Independiente Petrolero and 1.13 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ, a combined 3.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.1%
- 3–18.0%
- 3–07.1%
- 1–16.9%
Recent form
Independiente Petrolero
- 2026-10-24T23:30:00.000Z · H vs ABB · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-20T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Aurora · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Blooming · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-12T21:15:00.000Z · A vs Always Ready · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 1-0 (W)
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Blooming · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-01T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Petrolero · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oruro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa de la División Profesional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Petrolero | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Bolívar | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Aurora | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Nacional Potosí | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 17 |
| 5 | Real Potosí | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Oriente Petrolero | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | The Strongest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Guabirá | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Always Ready | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Real Tomayapo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 10 |
| 12 | Universitario de Vinto | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Oruro | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | ABB | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Blooming | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Independiente Petrolero win, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.