· Referee J. Mamani · Analysis updated 15:03 UTC
Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for Independiente Petrolero and 1.07 for Real Tomayapo, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Independiente Petrolero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Independiente Petrolero win
75.1% probability
Expected goals
2.93 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independiente Petrolero home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Tomayapo away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente Petrolero to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 14% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.93 goals for Independiente Petrolero and 1.07 for Real Tomayapo, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–07.7%
- 4–16.0%
Recent form
Independiente Petrolero
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Tomayapo · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T23:15:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T21:15:00.000Z · A vs Universitario de Vinto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
Real Tomayapo
- 2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oruro · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Always Ready · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Potosí · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa de la División Profesional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Petrolero | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Bolívar | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Aurora | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Nacional Potosí | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 17 |
| 5 | Real Potosí | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Oriente Petrolero | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | The Strongest | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Guabirá | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Always Ready | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 10 |
| 11 | Real Tomayapo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 10 |
| 12 | Universitario de Vinto | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Oruro | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | ABB | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Blooming | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Independiente Petrolero win, at 75.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.