Independiente Res. vs Boca Juniors Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Independiente Res. and 1.28 for Boca Juniors Res., a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Independiente Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Independiente Res. home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Independiente Res. and 1.28 for Boca Juniors Res., a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Independiente Res. win40%

Draw26%

Boca Juniors Res. win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.3%
1–09.6%
0–18.8%
2–18.6%
1–27.8%

Recent form

Independiente Res.

2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colón Res. · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atl. Rafaela 2 · 1-2 (L)

Boca Juniors Res.

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Reserve League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	20	15	2	3	29	47
2	Boca Juniors Res.	20	12	3	5	24	39
3	Racing Club Res.	21	11	6	4	7	39
4	River Plate Res.	21	11	4	6	9	37
5	Independiente Res.	19	11	3	5	19	36
6	Lanús Res.	19	11	2	6	13	35
7	Newell's Old Boys Res.	19	10	4	5	9	34
8	Quilmes 2	18	10	3	5	8	33
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	9	5	4	14	32
10	Atlético Tucumán Res.	19	9	3	7	-2	30
11	Unión Santa Fe Res.	18	7	8	3	4	29
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	8	4	6	9	28
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	7	7	4	6	28
14	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	18	8	3	7	-2	27
15	Talleres Córdoba Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
16	Huracán Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
17	Rosario Central Res.	18	7	5	6	3	26
18	Platense Res.	18	7	5	6	-3	26
19	Deportivo Riestra Res.	18	7	4	7	7	25
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	7	3	8	0	24
21	Instituto Res.	18	5	9	4	-1	24
22	San Lorenzo Res.	18	6	6	6	-2	24
23	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	18	6	5	7	2	23
24	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	18	6	5	7	-3	23
25	Banfield Res.	18	6	5	7	-4	23
26	Ferro 2	18	6	4	8	-3	22
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	18	5	4	9	-12	19
28	Colón Res.	18	5	3	10	-8	18
29	Aldosivi Res.	18	5	3	10	-11	18
30	Barracas Central Res.	18	4	5	9	-13	17
31	Sarmiento Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
32	Tigre Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
33	Godoy Cruz Res.	18	4	3	11	-10	15
34	Atl. Rafaela 2	18	3	3	12	-15	12
35	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	18	2	5	11	-23	11
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	18	2	2	14	-43	8
1	Independiente Res.	12	8	3	1	16	27
2	Lanús Res.	12	8	2	2	10	26
3	Deportivo Riestra Res.	12	7	2	3	11	23
4	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	12	6	5	1	6	23
5	River Plate Res.	12	5	7	0	10	22
6	Boca Juniors Res.	12	6	4	2	8	22
7	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	12	6	4	2	2	22
8	Estudiantes La Plata Res	12	6	3	3	8	21
9	Vélez Sársfield Res.	12	5	5	2	8	20
10	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	12	6	2	4	2	20
11	Rosario Central Res.	12	5	5	2	1	20
12	Atl. Rafaela 2	12	5	4	3	0	19
13	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	12	4	5	3	5	17
14	Huracán Res.	12	5	2	5	4	17
15	Sarmiento Res.	12	4	5	3	3	17
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	12	4	5	3	2	17
17	San Lorenzo Res.	12	5	2	5	2	17
18	Talleres Córdoba Res.	12	4	5	3	1	17
19	Unión Santa Fe Res.	12	3	7	2	7	16
20	Quilmes 2	12	4	4	4	0	16
21	Instituto Res.	12	3	6	3	-1	15
22	Atlético Tucumán Res.	12	4	3	5	-4	15
23	Newell's Old Boys Res.	12	3	5	4	2	14
24	Tigre Res.	12	4	2	6	-5	14
25	Racing Club Res.	12	2	7	3	-1	13
26	Defensa y Justicia Res.	12	2	6	4	-1	12
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	12	3	3	6	-9	12
28	Aldosivi Res.	12	2	5	5	-4	11
29	Argentinos Juniors Res.	12	2	5	5	-5	11
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	12	2	4	6	-12	10
31	Independiente Riva. Res.	12	2	3	7	-10	9
32	Banfield Res.	12	2	3	7	-12	9
33	Colón Res.	12	2	2	8	-9	8
34	Barracas Central Res.	12	1	5	6	-11	8
35	Platense Res.	12	0	7	5	-9	7
36	Ferro 2	12	1	3	8	-15	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.