Independiente Res. vs Defensa y Justicia Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Independiente Res. and 0.95 for Defensa y Justicia Res., a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Independiente Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Independiente Res. win

56.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Independiente Res. home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Defensa y Justicia Res. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Independiente Res. and 0.95 for Defensa y Justicia Res., a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Independiente Res. win57%

Draw23%

Defensa y Justicia Res. win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.6%
1–111.1%
2–010.3%
2–19.8%
0–06.6%

Recent form

Independiente Res.

2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colón Res. · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atl. Rafaela 2 · 1-2 (L)

Defensa y Justicia Res.

2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanús Res. · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colón Res. · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracán Res. · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Reserve League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	20	15	2	3	29	47
2	Boca Juniors Res.	20	12	3	5	24	39
3	Racing Club Res.	21	11	6	4	7	39
4	River Plate Res.	21	11	4	6	9	37
5	Independiente Res.	19	11	3	5	19	36
6	Lanús Res.	19	11	2	6	13	35
7	Newell's Old Boys Res.	19	10	4	5	9	34
8	Quilmes 2	18	10	3	5	8	33
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	9	5	4	14	32
10	Atlético Tucumán Res.	19	9	3	7	-2	30
11	Unión Santa Fe Res.	18	7	8	3	4	29
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	8	4	6	9	28
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	7	7	4	6	28
14	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	18	8	3	7	-2	27
15	Talleres Córdoba Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
16	Huracán Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
17	Rosario Central Res.	18	7	5	6	3	26
18	Platense Res.	18	7	5	6	-3	26
19	Deportivo Riestra Res.	18	7	4	7	7	25
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	7	3	8	0	24
21	Instituto Res.	18	5	9	4	-1	24
22	San Lorenzo Res.	18	6	6	6	-2	24
23	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	18	6	5	7	2	23
24	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	18	6	5	7	-3	23
25	Banfield Res.	18	6	5	7	-4	23
26	Ferro 2	18	6	4	8	-3	22
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	18	5	4	9	-12	19
28	Colón Res.	18	5	3	10	-8	18
29	Aldosivi Res.	18	5	3	10	-11	18
30	Barracas Central Res.	18	4	5	9	-13	17
31	Sarmiento Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
32	Tigre Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
33	Godoy Cruz Res.	18	4	3	11	-10	15
34	Atl. Rafaela 2	18	3	3	12	-15	12
35	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	18	2	5	11	-23	11
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	18	2	2	14	-43	8
1	Independiente Res.	14	10	3	1	20	33
2	Lanús Res.	14	9	3	2	13	30
3	Deportivo Riestra Res.	14	8	2	4	11	26
4	Estudiantes La Plata Res	14	7	4	3	10	25
5	Boca Juniors Res.	14	7	4	3	8	25
6	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	14	7	4	3	1	25
7	Vélez Sársfield Res.	14	6	6	2	12	24
8	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	6	6	2	5	24
9	Rosario Central Res.	14	6	6	2	2	24
10	River Plate Res.	14	5	8	1	9	23
11	Talleres Córdoba Res.	14	6	5	3	5	23
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	14	6	4	4	2	22
13	San Lorenzo Res.	14	6	3	5	3	21
14	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	5	6	3	0	21
15	Huracán Res.	14	6	2	6	2	20
16	Sarmiento Res.	14	4	7	3	3	19
17	Godoy Cruz Res.	14	4	7	3	2	19
18	Instituto Res.	14	4	7	3	0	19
19	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	4	6	4	3	18
20	Unión Santa Fe Res.	14	3	8	3	4	17
21	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	14	4	5	5	3	17
22	Quilmes 2	14	4	5	5	-3	17
23	Atlético Tucumán Res.	14	4	5	5	-4	17
24	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	3	7	4	0	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	3	6	5	-3	15
26	Independiente Riva. Res.	14	4	3	7	-6	15
27	Tigre Res.	14	4	3	7	-6	15
28	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	3	5	6	-5	14
29	Racing Club Res.	14	2	7	5	-6	13
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	14	3	4	7	-11	13
31	Banfield Res.	14	3	3	8	-12	12
32	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	14	3	3	8	-12	12
33	Colón Res.	14	3	2	9	-11	11
34	Barracas Central Res.	14	1	7	6	-11	10
35	Platense Res.	14	0	7	7	-11	7
36	Ferro 2	14	1	3	10	-17	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Independiente Res. win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.