· Analysis updated 11:56 UTC
Independiente Res. vs San Martín San Juan Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.67 expected goals for Independiente Res. and 0.59 for San Martín San Juan Res., a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Independiente Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Independiente Res. win
81.3% probability
Expected goals
2.67 – 0.59
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independiente Res. home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Martín San Juan Res. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 13% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.67 goals for Independiente Res. and 0.59 for San Martín San Juan Res., a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.6%
- 3–012.1%
- 1–010.2%
- 4–08.1%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Independiente Res.
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colón Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atl. Rafaela 2 · 1-2 (L)
San Martín San Juan Res.
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa y Justicia Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Independiente Res. win, at 81.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.