· Analysis updated 07:59 UTC
Independiente Riva. Res. vs Estudiantes La Plata Res Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Independiente Riva. Res. and 2.08 for Estudiantes La Plata Res, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Estudiantes La Plata Res the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Estudiantes La Plata Res win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independiente Riva. Res. home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estudiantes La Plata Res away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estudiantes La Plata Res to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 26% / 21% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Independiente Riva. Res. and 2.08 for Estudiantes La Plata Res, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–26.7%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–36.5%
Recent form
Independiente Riva. Res.
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín San Juan Res. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colón Res. · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra Res. · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-24T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 · 0-1 (L)
Estudiantes La Plata Res
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanús Res. · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa y Justicia Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Estudiantes La Plata Res win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.