Argentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 1622:15

2 – 1

Friday, 6 November 2026

Libertadores de America · Referee Juan Pafundi · Analysis updated 23:10 UTC

Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Independiente and 0.61 for Deportivo Riestra, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Independiente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Independiente win

51.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.24 – 0.61

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Independiente home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Riestra away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Independiente win52%

Draw30%

Deportivo Riestra win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals28%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

1–019.5%
0–015.7%
2–012.1%
1–111.9%
0–19.6%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.5%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.50 (model 67.6% vs market 61.5%, edge +6.1 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	1.50	61.5%	67.6%	1.48	+6.1
Double chance	Draw/Away	2.00	47.4%	48.4%	2.07	+1.0
Match result	Away	5.00	18.1%	18.3%	5.46	+0.2
Match result	Home	1.75	51.7%	51.7%	1.93	-0.0
Match result	Draw	3.00	30.2%	30.1%	3.32	-0.1
Double chance	Home/Away	1.35	70.2%	70.0%	1.43	-0.2
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.15	82.4%	81.8%	1.22	-0.6
Both teams to score	Yes	2.40	38.5%	32.4%	3.09	-6.1

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Independiente

2026-11-06T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Riestra · 2-1 (W)
2026-11-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensa Y Justicia · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-18T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-12T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 0-0 (D)

Deportivo Riestra

2026-11-06T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-31T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Cordoba · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-27T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-20T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-11-06T22:15:00.000Z · Independiente 2-1 Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2026-04-24T20:00:00.000Z · Independiente 0-2 Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2025-11-10T22:00:00.000Z · Independiente 1-0 Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2025-04-28T00:15:00.000Z · Independiente 0-0 Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2024-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · Independiente 3-1 Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2024-03-15T19:30:00.000Z · Independiente 0-1 Deportivo Riestra (Copa de la Liga Profesional)

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Instituto Cordoba	15	10	3	2	11	33
2	Boca Juniors	15	8	6	1	9	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	8	28
4	Defensa Y Justicia	15	8	4	3	7	28
5	Lanus	15	7	4	4	7	25
6	Independiente	16	6	5	5	-1	23
7	Newells Old Boys	15	5	7	3	3	22
8	Gimnasia M.	16	6	4	6	1	22
9	Union Santa Fe	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Platense	16	5	5	6	-2	20
11	San Lorenzo	16	5	4	7	-7	19
12	Estudiantes L.P.	16	4	4	8	-1	16
13	Talleres Cordoba	16	3	4	9	-6	13
14	Deportivo Riestra	16	2	6	8	-8	12
15	Central Cordoba de Santiago	15	2	4	9	-14	10
1	Rosario Central	15	9	4	2	12	31
2	Argentinos JRS	15	9	4	2	8	31
3	Gimnasia L.P.	16	9	4	3	5	31
4	River Plate	16	8	2	6	7	26
5	Barracas Central	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Belgrano Cordoba	16	6	5	5	2	23
7	Independ. Rivadavia	16	6	5	5	-3	23
8	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	3	7	-1	21
9	Tigre	16	5	4	7	0	19
10	Huracan	15	5	4	6	-4	19
11	Atletico Tucuman	16	4	6	6	-1	18
12	Banfield	16	3	6	7	-7	15
13	Racing Club	16	4	3	9	-8	15
14	Aldosivi	16	3	2	11	-10	11
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	15	2	3	10	-11	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Independiente win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.