Libertadores de America · Referee H. Mastrangelo · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Independiente and 0.87 for Instituto Cordoba, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Independiente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.1% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independiente home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Instituto Cordoba away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 32% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Independiente and 0.87 for Instituto Cordoba, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–113.0%
- 2–07.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 62.6% vs market 55.7%, edge +6.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 55.7% | 62.6% | 1.60 | +6.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 68.8% | 70.1% | 1.43 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.40 | 38.0% | 38.4% | 2.60 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.88 | 31.6% | 31.7% | 3.15 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.00 | 30.4% | 29.9% | 3.34 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.8% | 68.3% | 1.46 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 62.4% | 61.6% | 1.62 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.3% | 37.4% | 2.67 | -6.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Independiente
- 2026-10-12T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Instituto Cordoba · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T22:15:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 1-0 (W)
Instituto Cordoba
- 2026-10-02T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Cordoba · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-01T00:15:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.