· Analysis updated 14:45 UTC
Indonesia U23 vs Mali U23 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Indonesia U23 and 1.18 for Mali U23, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Indonesia U23 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Indonesia U23 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mali U23 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Indonesia U23 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 27% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Indonesia U23 and 1.18 for Mali U23, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–110.4%
- 0–08.8%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Indonesia U23
- 2025-11-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mali U23 · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-11-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mali U23 · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs India U23 · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs India U23 · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-09-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Korea Republic U23 · 0-1 (L)
Mali U23
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco U23 · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-11-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia U23 · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-11-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia U23 · 3-0 (W)
- 2024-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraguay U23 · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-07-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Japan U23 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.