Gelora Bung Tomo · Referee Ryo Tanimoto · Analysis updated 09:17 UTC
Indonesia vs Chinese Taipei Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for Indonesia and 0.84 for Chinese Taipei, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Indonesia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Indonesia win
73.0% probability
Expected goals
2.46 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Indonesia home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chinese Taipei away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Indonesia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 16% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for Indonesia and 0.84 for Chinese Taipei, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.2%
- 1–09.1%
- 3–17.7%
Recent form
Indonesia
- 2026-09-28T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Singapore · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-31T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Timor-Leste · 3-0 (W)
Chinese Taipei
- 2026-03-31T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Sri Lanka · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-18T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Turkmenistan · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-10-14T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 1-6 (L)
- 2025-10-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Thailand · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Indonesia win, at 73.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.