Gelora Bung Karno Stadium · Referee Rustam Lutfullin · Analysis updated 12:35 UTC
Indonesia vs Singapore Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.32 expected goals for Indonesia and 0.83 for Singapore, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Indonesia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Indonesia win
84.1% probability
Expected goals
3.32 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Indonesia home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Singapore away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Indonesia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 10% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.32 goals for Indonesia and 0.83 for Singapore, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.6%
- 2–08.7%
- 3–18.0%
- 4–08.0%
- 2–17.2%
Recent form
Indonesia
- 2026-09-28T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Singapore · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-31T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Timor-Leste · 3-0 (W)
Singapore
- 2026-10-01T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-28T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangladesh · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Thailand · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FIFA Asean Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indonesia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 |
| 2 | Malaysia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 |
| 3 | Singapore | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 3 |
| 4 | Bangladesh | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 0 |
| 1 | Thailand | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Vietnam | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Philippines | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Pakistan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 1 | Hong Kong | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Laos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 3 | Brunei | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Cambodia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Myanmar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Timor-Leste | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Indonesia win, at 84.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.