Ingolstadt II vs Cham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Ingolstadt II and 2.40 for Cham, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Cham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cham win

62.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 2.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ingolstadt II home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cham away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Ingolstadt II win19%

Draw19%

Cham win62%

Double chance 1X

38%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–29.3%
1–17.8%
1–37.4%
0–27.3%
0–16.1%

Recent form

Ingolstadt II

2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs DJK Bamberg · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Cham · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Bamberg · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Neudrossenfeld · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Großbardorf · 3-0 (W)

Cham

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Bamberg · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Neudrossenfeld · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ingolstadt II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordlingen · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger FV · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Ingolstadt II 3-0 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2025-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · Ingolstadt II 5-1 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2025-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · Ingolstadt II 2-3 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2024-10-19T15:30:00.000Z · Ingolstadt II 1-1 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2024-05-18T12:00:00.000Z · Ingolstadt II 2-2 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2023-10-28T14:00:00.000Z · Ingolstadt II 0-0 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cham	13	11	1	1	22	34
2	Würzburger FV	13	8	2	3	9	26
3	Gebenbach	13	8	2	3	9	26
4	Eintracht Bamberg	13	7	3	3	11	24
5	Jahn Regensburg II	13	6	4	3	6	22
6	Fortuna Regensburg	13	6	3	4	10	21
7	Kornburg	13	5	6	2	10	21
8	Bayern Hof	13	5	5	3	5	20
9	Stadeln	13	5	4	4	-3	19
10	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	13	5	3	5	5	18
11	Neudrossenfeld	13	5	1	7	-6	16
12	Ammerthal	13	4	2	7	-9	14
13	Ingolstadt II	13	3	4	6	-6	13
14	Weiden	13	3	3	7	-9	12
15	DJK Bamberg	13	2	5	6	-14	11
16	Großbardorf	13	3	1	9	-13	10
17	Nordlingen	13	2	4	7	-14	10
18	ASV Neumarkt	13	1	3	9	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cham win, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.