· Analysis updated 22:33 UTC
Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.05 for Kolos Kovalivka II, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Inhulets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Inhulets win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inhulets home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kolos Kovalivka II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inhulets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Inhulets and 1.05 for Kolos Kovalivka II, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Inhulets
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Prykarpattia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Metal Kharkiv · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Poltava · 0-0 (D)
Kolos Kovalivka II
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Oleksandria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Polissya II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Probiy Horodenka · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kulykiv · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Kyiv · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | SK Poltava | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Yarud Mariupol' | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Kulykiv | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Inhulets | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Prykarpattia | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Nyva Ternopil | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Metal Kharkiv | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | UCSA | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inhulets win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.