· Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
Inhulets vs Polissya II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Inhulets and 2.00 for Polissya II, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Inhulets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.3% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inhulets home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Polissya II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inhulets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 21% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Inhulets and 2.00 for Polissya II, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.3%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–34.9%
Recent form
Inhulets
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Prykarpattia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Metal Kharkiv · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Poltava · 0-0 (D)
Polissya II
- 2026-09-28T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Yarud Mariupol' · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:45:00.000Z · H vs Prykarpattia · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 3 | Oleksandria | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | SK Poltava | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Yarud Mariupol' | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Kulykiv | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Prykarpattia | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | Metal Kharkiv | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Nyva Ternopil | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Inhulets | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 | Chernihiv | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | UCSA | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -18 | 8 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.