Estadio Presidente Peron · Referee L. Rey Hilfer · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Instituto Cordoba and 0.97 for Boca Juniors, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Boca Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.2% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Instituto Cordoba home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Boca Juniors away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Juniors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 30% / 33% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Instituto Cordoba and 0.97 for Boca Juniors, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.5%
- 0–116.0%
- 1–013.7%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–27.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 65.0% vs market 55.7%, edge +9.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 55.7% | 65.0% | 1.54 | +9.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 67.0% | 67.2% | 1.49 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 29.7% | 29.8% | 3.36 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 62.5% | 62.6% | 1.60 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 32.8% | 32.8% | 3.05 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.45 | 37.5% | 37.4% | 2.67 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 70.5% | 70.2% | 1.42 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.3% | 35.0% | 2.86 | -9.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Instituto Cordoba
- 2026-10-02T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Cordoba · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-01T00:15:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 1-0 (W)
Boca Juniors
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T23:00:00.000Z · Instituto Cordoba 0-2 Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-07-28T23:30:00.000Z · Instituto Cordoba 0-0 Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2023-03-19T22:00:00.000Z · Instituto Cordoba 3-2 Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.