Estadio Presidente Peron · Referee L. Lobo Medina · Analysis updated 07:56 UTC
Instituto Cordoba vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for Instituto Cordoba and 0.43 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Instituto Cordoba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Instituto Cordoba win
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.43
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Instituto Cordoba home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Instituto Cordoba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 25% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.52 goals for Instituto Cordoba and 0.43 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–021.6%
- 2–016.4%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–08.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.33 | 70.0% | 72.7% | 1.38 | +2.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.75 | 34.5% | 35.4% | 2.82 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.06 | 89.5% | 89.8% | 1.11 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 9.00 | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.80 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.2% | 25.2% | 3.97 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 64.7% | 64.6% | 1.55 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.9% | 74.8% | 1.34 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 3.10 | 30.0% | 27.3% | 3.66 | -2.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Instituto Cordoba
- 2026-10-02T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Cordoba · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-01T00:15:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 1-0 (W)
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs River Plate · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Instituto Cordoba win, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.