Estadio Presidente Peron · Referee D. Herrera · Analysis updated 20:56 UTC
Instituto Cordoba vs Talleres Cordoba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Instituto Cordoba and 0.67 for Talleres Cordoba, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Instituto Cordoba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Instituto Cordoba win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Instituto Cordoba home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Talleres Cordoba away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.7%
- 0–016.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–010.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.60 (model 66.9% vs market 58.4%, edge +8.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.60 | 58.4% | 66.9% | 1.49 | +8.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 77.9% | 78.2% | 1.28 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 31.5% | 31.6% | 3.16 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 21.7% | 21.8% | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.4% | 53.4% | 1.87 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 46.8% | 46.6% | 2.15 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.7% | 68.4% | 1.46 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.25 | 41.6% | 33.1% | 3.02 | -8.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Instituto Cordoba
- 2026-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensa Y Justicia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Cordoba · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-1 (W)
Talleres Cordoba
- 2026-10-17T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-12T22:15:00.000Z · Instituto Cordoba 0-2 Talleres Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-11-16T20:00:00.000Z · Instituto Cordoba 0-0 Talleres Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-05-03T19:00:00.000Z · Instituto Cordoba 2-1 Talleres Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-08-03T20:15:00.000Z · Instituto Cordoba 1-1 Talleres Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-02-12T22:00:00.000Z · Instituto Cordoba 2-2 Talleres Cordoba (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-09-17T00:00:00.000Z · Instituto Cordoba 0-0 Talleres Cordoba (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-04-02T19:30:00.000Z · Instituto Cordoba 0-3 Talleres Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2014-04-12T20:10:00.000Z · Instituto Cordoba 1-1 Talleres Cordoba (Primera Nacional)
- 2013-10-14T19:10:00.000Z · Instituto Cordoba 2-1 Talleres Cordoba (Primera Nacional)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Instituto Cordoba win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.