Pasienky · Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Inter Bratislava vs Zlaté Moravce Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Inter Bratislava and 1.01 for Zlaté Moravce, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Inter Bratislava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inter Bratislava home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zlaté Moravce away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 53.1% vs market 42.7%, edge +10.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 42.7% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +10.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.0% | 72.5% | 1.38 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 44.0% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 27.5% | 27.5% | 3.64 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 28.4% | 28.2% | 3.55 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.0% | 71.8% | 1.39 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 56.0% | 55.7% | 1.80 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 57.3% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -10.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Inter Bratislava
- 2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Malženice · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zlaté Moravce · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-29T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Podbrezová · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pohronie · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Humenné · 1-1 (D)
Zlaté Moravce
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Bratislava · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Liptovský Mikuláš · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotíva Zvolen · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nová Baňa · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · Inter Bratislava 2-2 Zlaté Moravce (2. liga)
- 2026-06-20T15:00:00.000Z · Inter Bratislava 0-1 Zlaté Moravce (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-11-07T17:00:00.000Z · Inter Bratislava 0-3 Zlaté Moravce (2. liga)
- 2025-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · Inter Bratislava 1-2 Zlaté Moravce (2. liga)
- 2022-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · Inter Bratislava 1-1 Zlaté Moravce (Cup)
2. liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petržalka | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 29 |
| 2 | Šamorín | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Považská Bystrica | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 4 | Pohronie | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 5 | Žilina II | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 | Inter Bratislava | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 7 | Galanta | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Tatran Prešov | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 10 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Slovan Bratislava II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 12 | Zlaté Moravce | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Malženice | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | MFK Bytča | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 9 |
| 15 | Humenné | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.