Estadi Comunal · Analysis updated 05:51 UTC
Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Carroi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.33 expected goals for Inter Club d'Escaldes and 0.74 for Carroi, a combined total of 4.07. That distribution gives Inter Club d'Escaldes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Inter Club d'Escaldes win
85.7% probability
Expected goals
3.33 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inter Club d'Escaldes home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Carroi away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
14%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–010.5%
- 2–09.5%
- 4–08.7%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
Inter Club d'Escaldes
- 2026-10-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Santa Coloma · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Craiova · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Mjallby AIF · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ordino · 4-0 (W)
Carroi
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Escaldes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ranger's · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Penya Encarnada · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Santa Coloma · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 3-0 Carroi (1a Divisió)
- 2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 1-2 Carroi (1a Divisió)
- 2025-12-06T18:00:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 2-0 Carroi (1a Divisió)
- 2025-11-02T10:00:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 3-1 Carroi (1a Divisió)
- 2024-05-05T16:30:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 6-0 Carroi (1a Divisió)
- 2023-12-17T17:30:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 3-1 Carroi (1a Divisió)
- 2023-10-22T14:00:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 6-1 Carroi (1a Divisió)
- 2022-03-13T17:30:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 2-0 Carroi (1a Divisió)
- 2022-01-19T19:45:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 4-2 Carroi (1a Divisió)
- 2021-10-24T09:00:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 2-0 Carroi (1a Divisió)
1a Divisió table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 16 |
| 2 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 14 |
| 3 | Ordino | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Ranger's | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Esperança d'Andorra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Casa de Portugal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 8 | Penya Encarnada | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 9 | Sporting Escaldes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Carroi | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter Club d'Escaldes win, at 85.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.