Estadi Comunal · Analysis updated 11:04 UTC
Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Penya Encarnada Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Inter Club d'Escaldes and 0.91 for Penya Encarnada, a combined total of 3.91. That distribution gives Inter Club d'Escaldes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Inter Club d'Escaldes win
79.2% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inter Club d'Escaldes home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Penya Encarnada away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.1%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 4–06.8%
Recent form
Inter Club d'Escaldes
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Mjallby AIF · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ordino · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodez · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranger's · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Carroi · 3-0 (W)
Penya Encarnada
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Carroi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Santa Coloma · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranger's · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-01T14:30:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 2-1 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2026-02-14T18:00:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 1-0 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2025-12-17T13:30:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 4-0 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2025-05-16T08:30:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 3-2 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2025-02-09T15:00:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 1-1 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2025-01-12T11:00:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 6-0 Penya Encarnada (Copa Constitució)
- 2024-11-09T19:30:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 5-1 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2024-05-19T15:00:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 3-1 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2024-02-04T17:30:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 2-0 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
- 2023-10-29T10:00:00.000Z · Inter Club d'Escaldes 4-2 Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió)
1a Divisió table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 15 |
| 2 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13 |
| 3 | Ordino | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 4 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Ranger's | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Esperança d'Andorra | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Penya Encarnada | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 5 |
| 8 | Casa de Portugal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 9 | Sporting Escaldes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Carroi | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter Club d'Escaldes win, at 79.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.