Chase Stadium · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Inter Miami II vs Chattanooga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Inter Miami II and 2.68 for Chattanooga, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Chattanooga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chattanooga win
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 2.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chattanooga away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chattanooga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 14% / 16% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Inter Miami II and 2.68 for Chattanooga, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.0%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–28.0%
- 0–37.2%
- 1–16.7%
Recent form
Inter Miami II
Chattanooga
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Fire II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlanta United II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Huntsville City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Carolina Core · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Crown Legacy · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chattanooga win, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.