· Analysis updated 15:44 UTC
Inter Santa Maria vs Bagé Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.67 expected goals for Inter Santa Maria and 0.44 for Bagé, a combined total of 1.10. That distribution gives Inter Santa Maria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 44%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 10% for over 2.5 goals and 17% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 33%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
79.2% probability
Expected goals
0.67 – 0.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bagé away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 36% / 44% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.67 goals for Inter Santa Maria and 0.44 for Bagé, a combined 1.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 10% and both teams to score at 17%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 33%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
56%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–033.1%
- 1–022.1%
- 0–114.5%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–07.4%
Recent form
Inter Santa Maria
Bagé
- 2026-07-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gramadense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gramadense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Farroupilha · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarany de Bagé · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Brasil DE Pelotas · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gaúcho - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aimoré | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Inter Santa Maria | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 29 |
| 3 | Passo Fundo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 27 |
| 4 | Novo Hamburgo | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | Gramadense | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Veranópolis | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Bagé | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Lajeadense | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 | Santa Cruz RS | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Brasil Farroupilha | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -5 | 15 |
| 11 | Glória | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Esportivo | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -9 | 11 |
| 13 | União RS | 14 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 14 | Gaúcho | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Real | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | -19 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 79.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 17% and over 2.5 goals at 10%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.