· Analysis updated 19:22 UTC
Inter Star vs Young Star Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for Inter Star and 0.83 for Young Star, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Inter Star the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Inter Star win
69.1% probability
Expected goals
2.22 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inter Star home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Young Star away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter Star to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 18% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.22 goals for Inter Star and 0.83 for Young Star, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.7%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.7%
- 3–08.7%
Recent form
Inter Star
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kayanza United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ngozi City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Never Give Up Academy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vital'O · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Messager Ngozi · 0-3 (L)
Young Star
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Never Give Up Academy · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Muzinga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bumamuru · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rukinzo · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Royal Vision · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Vision | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Muzinga | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Rukinzo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Le Messager Ngozi | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Olympic Star | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Aigle Noir | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Ngozi City | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Bumamuru | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Musongati | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Vital'O | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | Inter Star | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Flambeau du Centre | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Never Give Up Academy | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Kayanza United | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Young Star | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -15 | 5 |
| 16 | Panthere Noir | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter Star win, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.