Veritas Stadium · Referee Goga Kikacheishvili, Georgia · Analysis updated 15:17 UTC
Inter Turku vs FC Copenhagen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Inter Turku and 2.10 for FC Copenhagen, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives FC Copenhagen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Copenhagen win
65.0% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inter Turku home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Copenhagen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Copenhagen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 15% / 20% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Inter Turku and 2.10 for FC Copenhagen, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.0%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–37.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.50 | 63.0% | 64.8% | 1.54 | +1.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.95 | 47.0% | 47.9% | 2.09 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 6.40 | 14.6% | 15.1% | 6.62 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.25 | 41.9% | 42.4% | 2.36 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.70 | 34.5% | 35.0% | 2.86 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.10 | 84.6% | 84.9% | 1.18 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.44 | 64.9% | 65.0% | 1.54 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.62 | 58.1% | 57.6% | 1.74 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.55 | 20.5% | 19.9% | 5.03 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 80.9% | 80.1% | 1.25 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.0% | 52.1% | 1.92 | -0.9 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.55 | 37.0% | 35.2% | 2.84 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Inter Turku
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gnistan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Oulu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs VPS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK Helsinki · 1-2 (L)
FC Copenhagen
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Midtjylland · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brondby · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · Inter Turku 1-4 FC Copenhagen (UEFA Europa Conference League)
- 2026-08-20T16:00:00.000Z · Inter Turku 0-0 FC Copenhagen (UEFA Europa Conference League)
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | FC Lugano | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Brann | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Twente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Brighton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | SC Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Gent | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 22 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 23 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | FK Jablonec | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Aarhus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 27 | Pafos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 31 | Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 | FC Thun | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | KuPS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Copenhagen win, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.