Inter Turku vs KuPS Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Inter Turku and 0.75 for KuPS, a combined total of 1.55. That distribution gives Inter Turku the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.80 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Inter Turku home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
KuPS away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 33% / 36% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Inter Turku and 0.75 for KuPS, a combined 1.55 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Inter Turku win33%

Draw36%

KuPS win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

64%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals46%

Over 2.5 goals20%

Over 3.5 goals7%

Both teams to score29%

Correct score

0–021.2%
1–017.0%
0–115.9%
1–112.7%
2–06.8%

Recent form

Inter Turku

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gnistan · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Oulu · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs VPS · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK Helsinki · 1-2 (L)

KuPS

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Oulu · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs VPS · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs HJK Helsinki · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gnistan · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Veikkausliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	22	12	7	3	15	43
2	Inter Turku	22	11	9	2	13	42
3	HJK Helsinki	22	11	4	7	9	37
4	Gnistan	22	10	6	6	7	36
5	AC Oulu	22	10	4	8	0	34
6	VPS	22	9	6	7	7	33
7	Lahti	22	9	5	8	7	32
8	Turku PS	22	8	7	7	5	31
9	Ilves	22	7	4	11	-3	25
10	SJK	22	4	7	11	-8	19
11	FF Jaro	22	3	6	13	-26	15
12	Mariehamn	22	3	5	14	-26	14
1	Inter Turku	27	14	10	3	15	52
2	KuPS	27	13	9	5	15	48
3	HJK Helsinki	26	13	6	7	16	45
4	Gnistan	26	11	9	6	8	42
5	AC Oulu	26	11	4	11	-2	37
6	VPS	26	10	6	10	-1	36
1	Lahti	26	10	6	10	5	36
2	Ilves	26	10	5	11	4	35
3	Turku PS	26	8	8	10	0	32
4	SJK	26	6	9	11	-6	27
5	FF Jaro	26	4	8	14	-27	20
6	Mariehamn	26	4	6	16	-27	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.