· Analysis updated 14:10 UTC
Inter vs Fiorentina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Inter and 0.87 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Inter the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Inter win
68.2% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inter home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 19% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Inter and 0.87 for Fiorentina, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.2%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.7%
- 3–08.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 48.2% vs market 42.9%, edge +5.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.9% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +5.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.36 | 68.2% | 68.2% | 1.47 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 7.00 | 13.3% | 13.3% | 7.52 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.10 | 86.7% | 86.7% | 1.15 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 81.5% | 81.5% | 1.23 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.00 | 31.8% | 31.8% | 3.14 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.00 | 18.6% | 18.5% | 5.41 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 57.1% | 51.8% | 1.93 | -5.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Inter
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Roma · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Udinese · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 1-2 (L)
Fiorentina
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Napoli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torino · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T19:45:00.000Z · Inter 1-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2025-10-29T19:45:00.000Z · Inter 3-0 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2025-02-10T19:45:00.000Z · Inter 2-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2025-02-06T19:45:00.000Z · Inter 0-3 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2024-01-28T19:45:00.000Z · Inter 1-0 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2023-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · Inter 4-0 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2023-05-24T19:00:00.000Z · Inter 2-1 Fiorentina (Coppa Italia)
- 2023-04-01T16:00:00.000Z · Inter 0-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2022-10-22T18:45:00.000Z · Inter 4-3 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2022-03-19T17:00:00.000Z · Inter 1-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter win, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.