Inter vs Genoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Inter and 1.07 for Genoa, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Inter the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Inter win

60.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.09 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Inter home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Genoa away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Inter and 1.07 for Genoa, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Inter win61%

Draw21%

Genoa win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.5%
2–09.3%
1–08.9%
3–16.9%

Recent form

Inter

2026-10-25T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bologna · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Brugge KV · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 3-0 (W)

Genoa

2026-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AS Roma · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Coppa Italia table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Fiorentina	2	2	0	0	6	6
2	Palermo	2	2	0	0	5	6
3	Genoa	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Cremonese	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Monza	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Udinese	2	2	0	0	2	6
7	Frosinone	2	1	1	0	3	4
8	Sassuolo	2	1	1	0	3	4
9	Hellas Verona	2	1	1	0	1	4
10	Arezzo	2	1	0	1	1	3
11	Venezia	2	1	0	1	0	3
12	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	0	3
13	Parma	2	1	0	1	0	3
14	Torino	2	1	0	1	0	3
15	Benevento	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Ascoli	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Mantova	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Catanzaro	1	0	1	0	0	1
19	Virtus Entella	1	0	1	0	0	1
20	Empoli	1	0	1	0	0	1
21	Vicenza Virtus	1	0	1	0	0	1
22	Sudtirol	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Catania	2	0	1	1	-2	1
24	Pisa	2	0	1	1	-3	1
25	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Carrarese	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Padova	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Ravenna	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Potenza	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Sampdoria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Union Brescia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Juve Stabia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
35	Avellino	1	0	0	1	-3	0
36	Cesena	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Inter win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.