BPER Training Centre · Analysis updated 20:32 UTC
Inter vs Lumezzane Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Inter and 1.10 for Lumezzane, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Inter the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Inter win
56.0% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inter home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lumezzane away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Inter and 1.10 for Lumezzane, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Inter
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Roma · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Udinese · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 1-2 (L)
Lumezzane
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Novara · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Renate · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cittadella · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Giana Erminio · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter win, at 56.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.