· Analysis updated 04:32 UTC
Inter vs Sassuolo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Inter and 1.68 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 4.38. That distribution gives Inter the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Inter win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inter home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sassuolo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.7%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.4%
- 3–25.8%
- 1–15.7%
Recent form
Inter
- 2026-10-25T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bologna · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Brugge KV · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 3-0 (W)
Sassuolo
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Como · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-08T17:00:00.000Z · Inter 5-0 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2025-09-21T18:45:00.000Z · Inter 2-1 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2024-05-04T18:45:00.000Z · Inter 0-1 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2023-09-27T18:45:00.000Z · Inter 1-2 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2023-05-13T18:45:00.000Z · Inter 4-2 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2022-12-29T16:00:00.000Z · Inter 1-0 Sassuolo (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · Inter 2-1 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2022-02-20T17:00:00.000Z · Inter 0-2 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2021-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · Inter 2-1 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2021-04-07T16:45:00.000Z · Inter 2-1 Sassuolo (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Lazio | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Juventus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Lecce | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Udinese | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.