Football Federation Training Ground · Analysis updated 19:46 UTC
Inter Willemstad vs Centro Barber Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Inter Willemstad and 0.88 for Centro Barber, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Inter Willemstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Inter Willemstad win
66.1% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inter Willemstad home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter Willemstad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 20% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Inter Willemstad and 0.88 for Centro Barber, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 51%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.2%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–08.0%
Recent form
Inter Willemstad
- 2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Del Este · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T19:30:00.000Z · H vs St. John's · 5-2 (W)
- 2024-02-18T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Centro Barber · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-01-21T23:45:00.000Z · A vs Jong Holland · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-01-14T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Victory Boys · 0-1 (L)
Centro Barber
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Curaçao Sekshon Pagá table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jong Colombia | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 29 |
| 2 | Scherpenheuvel | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Centro Dominguito | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 27 |
| 4 | Inter Willemstad | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 26 |
| 5 | Jong Holland | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 23 |
| 6 | Victory Boys | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | SUBT | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 16 |
| 8 | UNDEBA | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 15 |
| 9 | Atlétiko Saliña | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -20 | 8 |
| 10 | Centro Barber | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter Willemstad win, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.