Football Federation Training Ground · Analysis updated 17:50 UTC
Inter Willemstad vs Victory Boys Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Inter Willemstad and 1.60 for Victory Boys, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Victory Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inter Willemstad home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Victory Boys to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 38% / 24% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Inter Willemstad and 1.60 for Victory Boys, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–16.7%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Inter Willemstad
- 2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Del Este · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T19:30:00.000Z · H vs St. John's · 5-2 (W)
- 2024-02-18T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Centro Barber · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-01-21T23:45:00.000Z · A vs Jong Holland · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-01-14T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Victory Boys · 0-1 (L)
Victory Boys
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Curaçao Sekshon Pagá table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jong Colombia | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 29 |
| 2 | Scherpenheuvel | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Centro Dominguito | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 27 |
| 4 | Inter Willemstad | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 26 |
| 5 | Jong Holland | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 23 |
| 6 | Victory Boys | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | SUBT | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 16 |
| 8 | UNDEBA | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 15 |
| 9 | Atlétiko Saliña | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -20 | 8 |
| 10 | Centro Barber | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.