Intercity vs Castellonense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Intercity and 1.28 for Castellonense, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Castellonense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.13 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Intercity home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Castellonense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castellonense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 33% / 28% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Intercity and 1.28 for Castellonense, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Intercity win33%

Draw28%

Castellonense win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–113.0%
0–111.6%
1–010.2%
0–09.1%
1–28.3%

Recent form

Intercity

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeclano · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ucam Murcia · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorca Deportiva · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Baleares · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Castellón II · 2-1 (W)

Castellonense

2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Minera · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-04T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorca Deportiva · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Cieza · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Poblense · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ucam Murcia	6	4	0	2	8	12
2	Castellón II	6	4	0	2	6	12
3	Castellonense	6	4	0	2	4	12
4	La Nucía	6	4	0	2	4	12
5	Cieza	6	3	2	1	6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	3	2	1	2	11
7	Alcoyano	6	3	1	2	0	10
8	Yeclano	6	2	3	1	1	9
9	Intercity	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Lorca Deportiva	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Elche II	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Orihuela	6	2	1	3	-7	7
13	Mallorca II	6	1	3	2	-2	6
14	Atlético Baleares	6	1	3	2	-3	6
15	Poblense	6	2	0	4	-3	6
16	Peña Deportiva	6	1	1	4	-3	4
17	Valencia II	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	1	1	4	-7	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.