· Analysis updated 08:00 UTC
Interclube vs FC Luanda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Interclube and 0.69 for FC Luanda, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Interclube the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Interclube win
55.7% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Interclube home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Luanda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Interclube to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 27% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Interclube and 0.69 for FC Luanda, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.0%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–011.6%
- 2–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.60 (model 61.7% vs market 57.3%, edge +4.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.60 | 57.3% | 61.7% | 1.62 | +4.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 43.6% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.7% | 73.3% | 1.36 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 55.5% | 55.7% | 1.80 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.5% | 26.7% | 3.75 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.0% | 17.6% | 5.68 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 83.7% | 82.4% | 1.21 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.15 | 42.7% | 38.3% | 2.61 | -4.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Interclube
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Lunda-Sul · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo do Libolo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagrada Esperança · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kabuscorp · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Académica do Lobito · 2-0 (W)
FC Luanda
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Desportivo Huíla · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo do Libolo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs 1º de Agosto · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiliete · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Girabola table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Desportivo Huíla | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Petro de Luanda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bravos do Maquis FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | 1º de Agosto | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Interclube | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Sagrada Esperança | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | CD Lunda-Sul | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Recreativo do Libolo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | São Salvador | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | 1º de Maio | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Recreativo da Caála | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Kabuscorp | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Luanda | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Sporting de Cabinda | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Interclube win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.