· Analysis updated 10:48 UTC
Interclube vs Recreativo da Caála Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Interclube and 0.70 for Recreativo da Caála, a combined total of 2.02. That distribution gives Interclube the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Interclube win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Interclube home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Interclube to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 29% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Interclube and 0.70 for Recreativo da Caála, a combined 2.02 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 37%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.5%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–011.5%
- 0–19.3%
Recent form
Interclube
- 2026-09-01T14:30:00.000Z · A vs 1º de Agosto · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Luanda · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs São Salvador · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo do Libolo · 1-1 (D)
Recreativo da Caála
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Girabola table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Petro de Luanda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Bravos do Maquis FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | 1º de Agosto | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Interclube | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Desportivo Huíla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Sagrada Esperança | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Recreativo do Libolo | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | São Salvador | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | 1º de Maio | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | CD Lunda-Sul | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Recreativo da Caála | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Kabuscorp | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Luanda | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Sporting de Cabinda | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Interclube win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.