Francisco Rivera Escobar · Analysis updated 04:49 UTC
Internacional Palmira vs Leones FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Internacional Palmira and 0.83 for Leones FC, a combined total of 1.99. That distribution gives Internacional Palmira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.9% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Internacional Palmira home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leones FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Internacional Palmira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 30% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Internacional Palmira and 0.83 for Leones FC, a combined 1.99 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.9%
- 0–013.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–09.2%
Recent form
Internacional Palmira
- 2026-10-24T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Popayan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-19T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Magdalena · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Orsomarso · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Envigado · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres FC · 0-1 (L)
Leones FC
- 2026-10-24T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Orsomarso · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Santander · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Patriotas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Magdalena · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Barranquilla · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.