Francisco Rivera Escobar · Analysis updated 06:35 UTC
Internacional Palmira vs Union Magdalena Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.86 expected goals for Internacional Palmira and 0.97 for Union Magdalena, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Union Magdalena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.1% probability
Expected goals
0.86 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Internacional Palmira home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Union Magdalena away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Magdalena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 31% / 33% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.86 goals for Internacional Palmira and 0.97 for Union Magdalena, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.0%
- 0–115.5%
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–27.5%
Recent form
Internacional Palmira
- 2026-10-24T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Popayan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-19T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Magdalena · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Orsomarso · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Envigado · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres FC · 0-1 (L)
Union Magdalena
- 2026-10-24T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Depor FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Internacional Palmira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Ind. Yumbo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Leones FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Popayan · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.