Tulloch Caledonian Stadium · Referee C. Steven · Analysis updated 16:36 UTC
Inverness CT vs Dunfermline Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Inverness CT and 0.80 for Dunfermline, a combined total of 1.77. That distribution gives Inverness CT the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.5% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inverness CT home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dunfermline away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.1%
- 1–016.6%
- 0–113.6%
- 1–113.2%
- 2–08.1%
Recent form
Inverness CT
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Morton · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Livingston · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayr Utd · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Raith Rovers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 1-3 (L)
Dunfermline
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Partick · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Livingston · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayr Utd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morton · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · Inverness CT 0-0 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2024-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · Inverness CT 1-1 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2024-02-27T19:45:00.000Z · Inverness CT 0-0 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2023-11-18T15:00:00.000Z · Inverness CT 1-1 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2023-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · Inverness CT 1-1 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2022-03-26T15:00:00.000Z · Inverness CT 2-0 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2022-01-22T15:00:00.000Z · Inverness CT 1-1 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2021-11-13T15:00:00.000Z · Inverness CT 1-2 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2021-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · Inverness CT 0-0 Dunfermline (Championship)
- 2021-03-20T15:00:00.000Z · Inverness CT 1-0 Dunfermline (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Partick | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Livingston | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.