Tulloch Caledonian Stadium · Referee C. Graham · Analysis updated 17:38 UTC
Inverness CT vs Partick Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Inverness CT and 0.97 for Partick, a combined total of 1.72. That distribution gives Partick the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.1% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inverness CT home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Partick away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Partick to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 27% / 34% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Inverness CT and 0.97 for Partick, a combined 1.72 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.9%
- 0–117.4%
- 1–013.4%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–28.5%
Recent form
Inverness CT
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Morton · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Livingston · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayr Utd · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Raith Rovers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 1-3 (L)
Partick
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ayr Utd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Livingston · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arbroath · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Raith Rovers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Partick | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Livingston | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.