Inverurie Loco Works vs Buckie Thistle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.16 expected goals for Inverurie Loco Works and 1.64 for Buckie Thistle, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Inverurie Loco Works the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Inverurie Loco Works win

49.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.16 – 1.64

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Inverurie Loco Works home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Buckie Thistle away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inverurie Loco Works to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 21% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.16 goals for Inverurie Loco Works and 1.64 for Buckie Thistle, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Inverurie Loco Works win50%

Draw21%

Buckie Thistle win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

2–18.6%
1–17.9%
2–27.0%
1–26.5%
3–16.2%

Recent form

Inverurie Loco Works

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lochee United · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Deveronvale · 5-4 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Huntly · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Clachnacuddin · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strathspey Thistle · 1-1 (D)

Buckie Thistle

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Deveronvale · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Clachnacuddin · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lossiemouth · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brechin · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nairn County · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Football League - Highland League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brora Rangers	15	12	3	0	42	39
2	Inverurie Loco Works	16	9	5	2	10	32
3	Formartine United	15	8	4	3	9	28
4	Fraserburgh	15	7	6	2	16	27
5	Banks O' Dee	15	7	4	4	12	25
6	Clachnacuddin	14	6	5	3	16	23
7	Huntly	15	6	4	5	7	22
8	Strathspey Thistle	16	6	4	6	7	22
9	Forres Mechanics	15	6	3	6	1	21
10	Deveronvale	16	6	3	7	0	21
11	Nairn County	16	5	6	5	-2	21
12	Turriff United	16	6	2	8	-1	20
13	Buckie Thistle	14	6	1	7	8	19
14	Keith	15	5	3	7	-10	18
15	Lossiemouth	15	5	3	7	-14	18
16	Invergordon	15	4	1	10	-21	13
17	Wick Academy	16	3	1	12	-27	10
18	Rothes	15	1	0	14	-53	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Inverurie Loco Works win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.