Inverurie Loco Works vs Fraserburgh Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Inverurie Loco Works and 1.48 for Fraserburgh, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Fraserburgh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

62.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Inverurie Loco Works home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fraserburgh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 37% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Inverurie Loco Works and 1.48 for Fraserburgh, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Inverurie Loco Works win37%

Draw25%

Fraserburgh win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.4%
1–28.4%
2–18.4%
0–17.7%
1–07.7%

Recent form

Inverurie Loco Works

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lochee United · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Deveronvale · 5-4 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Huntly · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Clachnacuddin · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strathspey Thistle · 1-1 (D)

Fraserburgh

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brora Rangers · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee II · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strathspey Thistle · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Banks O' Dee · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Caledonian Braves · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Football League - Highland League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brora Rangers	15	12	3	0	42	39
2	Inverurie Loco Works	16	9	5	2	10	32
3	Formartine United	15	8	4	3	9	28
4	Fraserburgh	15	7	6	2	16	27
5	Banks O' Dee	15	7	4	4	12	25
6	Clachnacuddin	14	6	5	3	16	23
7	Huntly	15	6	4	5	7	22
8	Strathspey Thistle	16	6	4	6	7	22
9	Forres Mechanics	15	6	3	6	1	21
10	Deveronvale	16	6	3	7	0	21
11	Nairn County	16	5	6	5	-2	21
12	Turriff United	16	6	2	8	-1	20
13	Buckie Thistle	14	6	1	7	8	19
14	Keith	15	5	3	7	-10	18
15	Lossiemouth	15	5	3	7	-14	18
16	Invergordon	15	4	1	10	-21	13
17	Wick Academy	16	3	1	12	-27	10
18	Rothes	15	1	0	14	-53	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.