Stadio Thivas · Analysis updated 23:47 UTC
Ipato vs Digenis Neochori Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ipato and 0.43 for Digenis Neochori, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Ipato the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ipato win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ipato home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Digenis Neochori away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ipato to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 28% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Ipato and 0.43 for Digenis Neochori, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–022.7%
- 0–016.5%
- 2–015.6%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–07.2%
Recent form
Ipato
- 2024-04-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ellopiakos · 3-3 (D)
- 2024-04-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Petroupolis · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-04-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ermis Zoniana · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-04-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Agia Paraskevi · 4-0 (W)
- 2024-04-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Smirnis · 0-3 (L)
Digenis Neochori
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pierikos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Karitsa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Anthoupoli · 0-3 (L)
- 2023-04-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trikala · 2-2 (D)
- 2023-04-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Petriti · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2023-03-15T13:00:00.000Z · Ipato 2-0 Digenis Neochori (Gamma Ethniki - Group 3)
- 2022-12-17T13:00:00.000Z · Ipato 3-0 Digenis Neochori (Gamma Ethniki - Group 3)
Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makedonikos Siatista | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Veria | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Anagennisi Artas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Eordaikos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Alexandros Florinas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Doxa Mascholouriou | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Kastoria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Naousa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | PAS Giannina | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 10 | Thyella Katsikas | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 11 | Vatolakkos | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ipato win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.