Portman Road · Analysis updated 06:33 UTC
Ipswich Town U21 vs Jong PSV U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Ipswich Town U21 and 1.31 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Ipswich Town U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ipswich Town U21 home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Jong PSV U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ipswich Town U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 26% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Ipswich Town U21 and 1.31 for Jong PSV U21, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Ipswich Town U21
- 2026-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham City U21 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Anderlecht U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Worthing · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs West Bromwich Albion U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 1-4 (L)
Jong PSV U21
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitesse · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong AZ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Helmond Sport · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Den Bosch · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong Ajax · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League International Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anderlecht U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Monaco U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Brondby U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 6 | Borussia Dortmund II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP B | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Nordsjælland U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Brighton U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Milan II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Aston Villa U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | West Ham United U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Genk U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Jong PSV U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Southampton U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Sunderland U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Everton U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 21 | Juventus U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 22 | Ipswich Town U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Paris Saint-Germain U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Valencia U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Fulham U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Leicester City U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 29 | Stoke City U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.