Portman Road · Referee S. Barrott · Analysis updated 20:32 UTC
Ipswich vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.64 for Arsenal, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ipswich home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arsenal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 24% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Ipswich and 1.64 for Arsenal, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–17.2%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Ipswich
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 0-2 (L)
Arsenal
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · Ipswich 2-4 Arsenal (League Cup)
- 2025-04-20T13:00:00.000Z · Ipswich 0-4 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2024-12-27T20:15:00.000Z · Ipswich 0-1 Arsenal (Premier League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.