Briggs Rd Sporting Complex · Analysis updated 04:08 UTC
Ipswich vs Capalaba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.61 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.85 for Capalaba, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives Ipswich the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws roughly 25% of the time.
Model pick
Ipswich to Win
75.0% probability
Expected goals
2.61 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.7%
- 3–09.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.9%
Why the model likes this
Capalaba away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ipswich to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 15% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.61 goals for Ipswich and 0.85 for Capalaba, a combined 3.46 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 53%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
Ipswich
Capalaba
- 2026-08-15T06:15:00.000Z · H vs Robina City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-31T10:30:00.000Z · A vs North Star · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-19T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Holland Park Hawks · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Redlands United · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Queensland Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 31 | 52 |
| 3 | SC Wanderers | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 37 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 35 |
| 5 | Robina City | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 32 |
| 6 | Caboolture | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 31 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -8 | 30 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -2 | 27 |
| 10 | North Star | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -19 | 21 |
| 11 | St George Willawong | 22 | 4 | 1 | 17 | -39 | 13 |
| 12 | Capalaba | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | -36 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.