Portman Road · Analysis updated 14:43 UTC
Ipswich vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.59 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives Ipswich the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ipswich win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 1.59
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ipswich home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Crystal Palace away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ipswich to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 20% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.37 goals for Ipswich and 1.59 for Crystal Palace, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.7%
- 1–25.7%
Recent form
Ipswich
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 3-2 (W)
Crystal Palace
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lyon · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Coventry | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ipswich win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.