Portman Road Stadium · Referee Lewis Smith, England · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Ipswich vs Fulham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.27 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Fulham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ipswich home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fulham away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–08.6%
- 1–28.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 50.2% vs market 43.0%, edge +7.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.0% | 50.2% | 1.99 | +7.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.75 | 33.8% | 34.2% | 2.92 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 65.6% | 65.8% | 1.52 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 72.7% | 1.38 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 27.4% | 27.3% | 3.66 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.53 | 61.7% | 61.5% | 1.63 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.40 | 38.8% | 38.5% | 2.60 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.0% | 49.8% | 2.01 | -7.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Ipswich
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 0-2 (L)
Fulham
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-01-05T14:00:00.000Z · Ipswich 2-2 Fulham (Premier League)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Ipswich 1-1 Fulham (Premier League)
- 2023-11-01T19:45:00.000Z · Ipswich 1-3 Fulham (League Cup)
- 2020-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · Ipswich 0-1 Fulham (League Cup)
- 2018-01-02T19:45:00.000Z · Ipswich 1-4 Fulham (Championship)
- 2017-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · Ipswich 0-2 Fulham (Championship)
- 2017-04-08T14:00:00.000Z · Ipswich 1-3 Fulham (Championship)
- 2016-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Ipswich 0-2 Fulham (Championship)
- 2016-04-19T18:45:00.000Z · Ipswich 1-1 Fulham (Championship)
- 2015-12-15T19:45:00.000Z · Ipswich 2-1 Fulham (Championship)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.